The Rise of the Wide Receiver Continues -
“…taking a WR2 on a team with a veteran QB is a better middle round pick than choosing a RB1 on a team with a first or second year signal caller”
I love little gems like this one from Nicholas Zumwalde of FFToolbox that use simple analysis to arrive at useful conclusions for fantasy owners. Often draft success hinges on those third, fourth, and fifth round picks, and traditional wisdom has favored taking a lower tier starting running back over a team’s second wide receiver in most cases.
This article contributes to a growing body of evidence for a new trend in fantasy football: wide receivers are as valuable if not more so than running backs.
The guys over at Pro Football Focus do some incredible work with stats, and I found this recent article on running backs to be fascinating. Well, fascinating for a statistics article.
While some question the validity of taking the approach of applying a rating to players, the fact we do it so frequently with quarterbacks simply begs the question, “why not?”. Commenters note that the elusiveness rating isn’t necessarily fair given the myriad of outside factors that can affect productivity that are beyond the runner’s control (e.g., poor offensive line play). I would counter that the same concern holds true for quarterbacks, yet the QB Rating system is generally an accepted statistical tool.1 Also, a fair retort would be that a truly elusive running back, like a truly great quarterback, can overcome a poor supporting cast (e.g., Barry Sanders).
Besides, in the end this is a measure of productivity, which is what we fantasy football nuts care about. I do think a regression analysis examining how offensive line play and other factors correlate to running back elusiveness would be fascinating and instructive.2
So I applaud Sam Monson and company for their efforts. This isn’t their first foray into rating other player positions, although they may be getting carried away. 3
Albeit what the tool looks like is often debated, whether it is the traditional system or that new fangled ESPN model. ↩
Yes, I just took this to a whole new nerdy level people. Deal with it. ↩
Running back pass block efficiency may be a little much guys. ↩
A solid breakdown and analysis by Jeff Haverlack over at Dynasty League Football of the big rookie debate raging this off season: Andrew Luck versus Robert Griffin III (RG3).
I am personally torn, especially after being totally wrong (along with many others) regarding Cam Newton last year. So while I am very intrigued by RG3’s upside, physical skill set, and maturity, I am also concerned I may overreact to my miss on Cam Newton and overvalue him.
This is not the first, nor will it be the last, look at this debate. I have a feeling many, like me, will be torn even after making our draft day selections. Chances are both will be solid franchise quarterbacks, but we won’t know for sure for years to come.
This is a dense article from Nicholas Zumwalde of FFToolbox.com, but it has some interesting information regarding receiver target trends.
Peyton Manning, the New York Highlander? -
Walton Spurlin over at FFToolbox makes a compelling argument for Peyton Manning wearing a Jets’ green as opposed to a Miami teal jersey. While it is an argument made mostly within the vacuum of on-paper logic, he raises some good points.1 Manning is certainly the type of competitor who would love to take on the Patriots twice a year, and the Jets are a better team than Miami. If the rumors are true that Manning would sign an incentive-laden contract, this could make a ton of sense.
For example, there are some serious prohibitive salary cap considerations. The Jets don’t have a ton of space, and only have some wiggle room thanks to a restructuring of D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s contract. ↩