Gridiron Meanderings

Ken Clein is back over at Dynasty League Football with a pretty nice article on things to consider when rookie drafting. Sure he contradicts himself a bit by his own admission with Tenet #5 (Every position is important) and #3 (Never draft a DB or K), but the article is best taken as “food for thought.”

Such is the case for with Tenet #4: Pick a TE sooner.

The NFL has evolved in two important respects that has shaken fantasy football to its core:

1. Running back committees.
2. Pass receiving tight ends.

The running back position, once the sacred cow of fantasy football, has diminished in importance as teams have gone away from the feature back system. This has in turn given rise to stud wide receivers and quarterbacks making more appearances in the first two rounds. The production playing field has flattened. We’ve seen this trend coming from a long way, but it’s really hitting home in 2012.

The stud tight end pass catching trend on the other hand has been more of a surprise. Sure there was Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe for a number of years, followed by Antonio Gates, but the past three years has seen an explosion of talent. Behemoths that can block and catch and perhaps more importantly run. It’s a revolution that we have yet to see the full consequences come to pass, because defenses are going to adjust in ways we probably haven’t quite seen yet.

It’s an exciting and scary time for fantasy owners. Who would have thought a tight end could reasonably be drafted in the first two rounds of any draft five years ago?

Chet Gresham over at Rotoworld recently posted his third article in a series looking at player average draft position from 2011 versus their actual performance.¹ The breakdown is simple, and he highlights some notable points in brief analysis.

Ryan McKenzie of FFToolbox makes a case for Peyton Hillis landing in Tampa Bay. I personally think he’s a little off his rocker, as I don’t think they want two power backs in Tampa, but to each their own.¹ Plus, it looks like he may not even Cleveland.²

Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson does a fantastic job looking at the tackling numbers of cornerbacks. However, if you lives in eastern PA, you may want to avert your eyes.

I especially loved that he gathered the information on missed tackles. Cornerback is perhaps one of the most overlooked positions in IDP play, so this article is a great tool for owners to take better assessment of the position.

Looking forward to reading the rest of this series.

This is a list of five dynasty players to buy low that I don’t totally buy into from Ken Clein.

Kyle Rudolph? Sure, has a lot of potential and probably can be acquired relatively cheap. Kelvin Sheppard? Ok, I’ll bite on that one, too. Andre Roberts? Has the talent and after a disappointing 2011, can be had cheap. I do question whether he will have a capable quarterback throwing the ball, but if you have hope that a healthy Peyton Manning lands in Arizona or Skelton or Kolb finally wakes up, then he makes a lot of sense to target.

But Ken completely loses me on his two Texans picks.

Ben Tate is certainly a good target, but he had a very nice 2011 campaign (by Ken’s own admission). So I have major doubts as to whether he can be acquired cheaply. Perhaps, if by cheap, you are comparing his price tag to later if Adrian Foster signs elsewhere this off-season. Fact is, most owners aren’t going to be itching to part with a guy of Tate’s caliber for peanuts, especially with Foster’s injury history, his age, and his potential to start in a year or two.

Matt Leinart?! Will be cut by the Texans or the no. 3 quarterback. Yates showed too much not to be the primary backup in Houston. Unless you have hopes he finally reunites with his old ball coach in Seattle, I wouldn’t bother.¹

But who knows, I might be proven wrong on all counts.²