Gridiron Meanderings

I wasn’t going to get into analyzing why I think the Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the Green Bay Packers in relatively close 27-20 showdown today, but friend and colleague Mr. Jim Day has provoked me into it via a Twitter shouting match (all in good fun though, I think). So here is my break down.

The Steelers are a better team than the one that beat the Packers in 2009. While the Steelers were only 16th against the pass in 2009, they improved to 12th in 2010. They allowed an embarrassing number of big pass plays in 2009 (46 of 20+ yards), but reigned those big plays in this season (35 of 20+ yards). The Steelers secondary also stepped up their play by creating more turnovers, posting 21 interceptions this year as opposed to 12 last year. This is indicative of the improved play of William Gay, the return of Bryant McFadden, and of course Troy Polamalu being healthy for most of the season (he was out when the Packers played the Steelers in 2009).

The Steelers run defense is even better this season from last. They were a solid third in the league in 2009 despite losing Aaron Smith to injury. This season, they were the number one rush defense without Smith. The big reason being 2009 first round pick Ziggy Hood was actually statistically better in run defense than Smith. In 2009 the Steelers were relying on the likes of journeyman Travis Kirschke to fill the void.

Then there is the improvement on the offensive side of the ball: namely, the Steelers are running the ball much better this season compared to last. In 2009, they were 19th in rushing offense. In 2010, they are a solid 11th due to improved all-around play from Rashard Mendenhall and short-yardage play Isaac Redman. Oh, and lest people get hung up on the loss of Maurkice Pouncey, Mendenhall was running effectively behind an ever-shifting offensive line all season long. He even posted over 100 yards against the third best New York Jets run defense two weeks ago without Pouncey. The Packers are a worse run defense.

Meanwhile, despite all the hype the Packers defense is receiving right now, they actually regressed from their 2009 form. They went from being the number one rush defense to being 18th overall in 2010! They allowed a full 500 yards more on the ground to opposing teams! Meanwhile, despite the emergence of Sam Shields, the Packers were fifth in passing defense in both years.

Offensively, the Packers are about where they were in 2009 this season. They ended the regular season fifth overall in passing offense: they were seventh overall in 2009 and the total yards passing were nearly identical (~4100 yards). Meanwhile, the rushing defense has suffered despite some good games from James Starks at the end. They ranked 14th in rushing in 2009 and only 24th overall in 2010. Fact is, they missed Ryan Grant.

So, for those who want to say the Packers are a better team than they were when they lost to the Steeler in 2009, you are dead wrong. The Steelers in fact are the team that has improved, while the Packers have actually regressed in a number of categories. It will still be a close game, but the edge in fact goes to the Steelers.