Gridiron Meanderings

The Other Rookies

Tue, 22 May 2012 23:45:58 -0400

IDP rookie rankings are too often neglected. I know I was scrambling to find some for my deeper dynasty rookie drafts. Joe Everett provides a very nice top-50. Some really nice wild card picks that go against the grain of the consensus opinions I’ve read elsewhere.

Clark, Stocker, and Two Smoking Tight Ends

Tue, 22 May 2012 23:40:31 -0400

Clark, Stocker, and Two Smoking Tight Ends:

I agree with Ken Kelly’s analysis. Kellen Winslow was dealt out of Tampa for two reasons:

His contract was far too rich given his production; and
The front office and coaches have faith in Luke Stocker as their future starter.

Personally, I think the future is a lot closer than many people realize. Stocker is a well-rounded tight end who, by his own GM’s admission, is an every-down player. He reminds me a lot of Heath Miller and Jason Witten.

Ignore the Dallas Clark signing. He’s simply a veteran insurance piece brought on to mentor Stocker. Unless he bounces back with his receiving skills, his subpar blocking skills make him a liability even in two tight end sets. Given his contract, unless he wows in camp, he’ll probably be cut before his $2.7 million salary becomes guaranteed.

Draft Day Mocking

Thu, 26 Apr 2012 10:48:00 -0400

Draft Day Mocking:

Shame on you if you have not been following Scott Wright’s predraft scouting on Draft Countdown. But if you haven’t been, you should now since his final mock draft is up for the first three rounds. It’s a good one with terrific commentary throughout the first round.

I of course do not wholeheartedly agree with Scott. For example, I disagree with his giving Barron to the Bills, as I agree with Mike Mayock and think Keuchly makes more sense. Also not sure Poe goes so high to the Cowboys given his stock plummet over production concerns. On the flip side, I love his giving the Eagles Chandler Jones and Kevin Zeitler to the Steelers.¹

Of course, this is all academic as trades will happen, which will totally rock everyone’s mock. Gotta love Draft Day.

Of course, I wouldn’t mind Poe or Cordy Glenn either. ↩

Players are Like Super Balls

Fri, 13 Apr 2012 11:52:00 -0400

Players are Like Super Balls:

This is a pretty good list from Jonnie Stoneberg over at FFToolbox of players who have a good chance to rebound after disappointing seasons. I especially like the Mike Williams call, as I think Jonnie has rightly framed the situation in this article.

I do worry about the rest of his picks, as the concern with many is age and/or injury. Andre Johnson has been hurt almost as often as he has been healthy throughout his career. Chris Johnson may or may not have lost a step. Reggie Wayne is no spring chicken, and there will be growing pains with Luck.

In the case of Vick and Jackson, the concern is more mental than anything else. Both have all the talent in the world, but perhaps 2011 was merely the pulling away of the curtain from an anomalous 2010 season. Owners will have to decide for themselves going forward. I know the Eagles’ OTAs and training camp will be one I keep close tabs on.

Building a Successful Running Back

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 15:19:41 -0400

Building a Successful Running Back:

As a fan of the Big Ten, this article makes me sad. As a fantasy football owner, this is just a nifty breakdown by Scott Daniel over at Dynasty League Football. Just in time for rookie draft season.

The Rise of the Wide Receiver Continues

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 15:14:50 -0400

The Rise of the Wide Receiver Continues:

“…taking a WR2 on a team with a veteran QB is a better middle round pick than choosing a RB1 on a team with a first or second year signal caller”

I love little gems like this one from Nicholas Zumwalde of FFToolbox that use simple analysis to arrive at useful conclusions for fantasy owners. Often draft success hinges on those third, fourth, and fifth round picks, and traditional wisdom has favored taking a lower tier starting running back over a team’s second wide receiver in most cases.

This article contributes to a growing body of evidence for a new trend in fantasy football: wide receivers are as valuable if not more so than running backs.

The Elusive Running Back

Fri, 30 Mar 2012 13:16:00 -0400

The Elusive Running Back:

The guys over at Pro Football Focus do some incredible work with stats, and I found this recent article on running backs to be fascinating. Well, fascinating for a statistics article.

While some question the validity of taking the approach of applying a rating to players, the fact we do it so frequently with quarterbacks simply begs the question, “why not?”. Commenters note that the elusiveness rating isn’t necessarily fair given the myriad of outside factors that can affect productivity that are beyond the runner’s control (e.g., poor offensive line play). I would counter that the same concern holds true for quarterbacks, yet the QB Rating system is generally an accepted statistical tool.¹ Also, a fair retort would be that a truly elusive running back, like a truly great quarterback, can overcome a poor supporting cast (e.g., Barry Sanders).

Besides, in the end this is a measure of productivity, which is what we fantasy football nuts care about. I do think a regression analysis examining how offensive line play and other factors correlate to running back elusiveness would be fascinating and instructive.²

So I applaud Sam Monson and company for their efforts. This isn’t their first foray into rating other player positions, although they may be getting carried away. ³

Albeit what the tool looks like is often debated, whether it is the traditional system or that new fangled ESPN model. ↩
Yes, I just took this to a whole new nerdy level people. Deal with it. ↩
Running back pass block efficiency may be a little much guys. ↩

The Great Draft Debate

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 10:10:39 -0400

The Great Draft Debate:

A solid breakdown and analysis by Jeff Haverlack over at Dynasty League Football of the big rookie debate raging this off season: Andrew Luck versus Robert Griffin III (RG3).

I am personally torn, especially after being totally wrong (along with many others) regarding Cam Newton last year. So while I am very intrigued by RG3’s upside, physical skill set, and maturity, I am also concerned I may overreact to my miss on Cam Newton and overvalue him.

This is not the first, nor will it be the last, look at this debate. I have a feeling many, like me, will be torn even after making our draft day selections. Chances are both will be solid franchise quarterbacks, but we won’t know for sure for years to come.

Predicting a Moving Target

Mon, 26 Mar 2012 09:12:52 -0400

Predicting a Moving Target:

This is a dense article from Nicholas Zumwalde of FFToolbox.com, but it has some interesting information regarding receiver target trends.

Peyton Manning, the New York Highlander?

Wed, 29 Feb 2012 11:17:30 -0500

Peyton Manning, the New York Highlander?:

Walton Spurlin over at FFToolbox makes a compelling argument for Peyton Manning wearing a Jets’ green as opposed to a Miami teal jersey. While it is an argument made mostly within the vacuum of on-paper logic, he raises some good points.¹ Manning is certainly the type of competitor who would love to take on the Patriots twice a year, and the Jets are a better team than Miami. If the rumors are true that Manning would sign an incentive-laden contract, this could make a ton of sense.

For example, there are some serious prohibitive salary cap considerations. The Jets don’t have a ton of space, and only have some wiggle room thanks to a restructuring of D’Brickashaw Ferguson’s contract. ↩

This is Mike Wallace

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 16:25:00 -0500

This is Mike Wallace:

Everyone has been talking about Pittsburgh restricted free agent WR Mike Wallace and who might steal him away, but there’s been limited breakdowns of his skills (other than he’s really fast) and where he’d fit in.

Alen Dumonjic of The Score has a pretty good breakdown of his game and value to a potential suitor. I think he might be a little overly critical in his assessment (I would argue he at least on the cusp of being an elite receiver), he does back it up with accurate film study. While I knew Wallace had areas in his route tree to work on, I hadn’t myself realized his weaknesses might make him a less-than-ideal candidate for New England’s system.

While there is no fantasy spin in the article, if there is a fantasy takeaway, it is that Wallace hasn’t even peeked yet.

Moneyball Meets Fantasy Football

Fri, 24 Feb 2012 15:45:11 -0500

Moneyball Meets Fantasy Football:

Paymon Shokoohi of Set My Roster has a guest piece over at Dynasty League Football about his “moneyball” strategy.¹ While most teams implement his strategy to some degree, he suggests that its worth considering going all-in on it.

I’m not sure I buy the moneyball approach as a team foundation. I do wholeheartedly feel that, when implemented in part, it can put a contender over the top.² Whether it’s gems like Victor Cruz or late career bloomers like Brandon Lloyd, cast offs and hidden potential players are the wildcards that make fantasy teams go from good to great.

Whether you want to try full-on moneyball or not, I do like some of the players he suggests as fitting this strategy’s bill for 2012. Clay is an interesting guy that I am keeping loose tabs on myself.

Spoiler: He targets value players, players coming off injury or bad seasons, up-and-comers, and veterans who might have a little something left in the tank. ↩
I especially feel this is a bad move in dynasty formats, which leaves me puzzled that this was published on a site dedicated to dynasty fantasy football. ↩

NFL Draft Pick Calculator

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 15:29:18 -0500

NFL Draft Pick Calculator:

While this doesn’t exactly equate for fantasy drafts, it’s a cool tool for NFL Draft nerds or fantasy football nuts who want to try and apply it to their own leagues.¹

(via Football Guys’ Jeff Haseley)

I wouldn’t really recommend relying on it as a fantasy football draft tool, but it could be useful if you’re trying to gauge pick value; especially in cases where you are trading draft picks for draft picks only. ↩

NFL Meets the Simpsons

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 15:21:33 -0500

NFL Meets the Simpsons:

Michael Schottey over at Bleacher Report has a neat little blurb comparing each current NFL team with a character from the Simpsons. While it has nothing to do with fantasy football, it is a fun read.

But shame on them for making into one of those poor-taste slide shows to generate more page views. Have some class.

Taking Weeden to the Movies

Sun, 19 Feb 2012 15:19:41 -0500

Taking Weeden to the Movies:

Matt Waldman over at The Rookie Scouting Portfolio just posted an insightful, and rarely profound, fantasy football article. It’s a great breakdown of Brandon Weeden’s decision making skills where Waldman manages to weave not only cinematic critique but also a philosophic didactic on intellect and wisdom.

Definitely worth a read.

Should Teams Fear the First-Round Receiver?

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 10:29:10 -0500

Should Teams Fear the First-Round Receiver?:

Walker Rhodes of Optimum Scouting provides us with some food for thought about first-round, cannot-miss wide receivers. Certainly the Lions’ failures skew things a bit, but he brings up some interesting stats concerning the top picks at the position over the past 10 years.

That said, I would be very curious to see a comparison to other skill positions before jumping to conclusions. I have a feeling quarterbacks especially have a similar or higher failure rate. What about all of the pass rushers and left tackles who never panned out? Fact of the matter is, without context, being worried about first-round wide receivers’ failing is no more or less a concern than any other marquee position.

So my advice is to give this a read, but take Rhodes’ conclusion with a grain of salt.

Running B(l)ack Market

Fri, 17 Feb 2012 09:29:37 -0500

Running B(l)ack Market:

Evan Silva over at Rotoworld has a fantastic, albeit lengthy, review of the free agent market for running backs along with what appears to be some pretty sanely logical predictions. Definitely worth at least skimming for the players you are tracking.

The Times They are a Changin'

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 16:56:00 -0500

The Times They are a Changin':

Michael Fabiano over at NFL.com echoes my post from last night. The era of the feature running back is over: the league is even more of a passing focused affair and runners move in packs (read: committees) now. Although his focus is on quarterbacks, I’d argue wide receivers and to a greater degree tight ends are the beneficiaries of these changes.

It’s a brand new day.

My Zach Law Interview

Tue, 14 Feb 2012 13:07:58 -0500

My Zach Law Interview:

Zach Law decided I was interview worthy, and I am honored to join a pretty good list of who’s who in fantasy football that Zach has interviewed. Hopefully my story will hold up against his previous subjects. Either way, you should defintely bookmark Zach’s site, especially if you are a Titans fan. He knows his stuff.

Simple Draft Advice Inspires Deeper Reflection on Fantasy Football Trends

Mon, 13 Feb 2012 23:35:38 -0500

Simple Draft Advice Inspires Deeper Reflection on Fantasy Football Trends:

Ken Clein is back over at Dynasty League Football with a pretty nice article on things to consider when rookie drafting. Sure he contradicts himself a bit by his own admission with Tenet #5 (Every position is important) and #3 (Never draft a DB or K), but the article is best taken as “food for thought.”

Such is the case for with Tenet #4: Pick a TE sooner.

The NFL has evolved in two important respects that has shaken fantasy football to its core:

Running back committees.
Pass receiving tight ends.

The running back position, once the sacred cow of fantasy football, has diminished in importance as teams have gone away from the feature back system. This has in turn given rise to stud wide receivers and quarterbacks making more appearances in the first two rounds. The production playing field has flattened. We’ve seen this trend coming from a long way, but it’s really hitting home in 2012.

The stud tight end pass catching trend on the other hand has been more of a surprise. Sure there was Tony Gonzalez and Shannon Sharpe for a number of years, followed by Antonio Gates, but the past three years has seen an explosion of talent. Behemoths that can block and catch and perhaps more importantly run. It’s a revolution that we have yet to see the full consequences come to pass, because defenses are going to adjust in ways we probably haven’t quite seen yet.

It’s an exciting and scary time for fantasy owners. Who would have thought a tight end could reasonably be drafted in the first two rounds of any draft five years ago?